Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 27,397
2 Arizona 25,244
3 Florida 23,763
4 New York 21,776
5 Mississippi 21,638
6 New Jersey 20,890
7 Alabama 19,699
8 South Carolina 18,800
9 Rhode Island 18,512
10 Georgia 17,829
11 District of Columbia 17,737
12 Nevada 17,435
13 Massachusetts 17,391
14 Texas 16,838
15 Tennessee 16,622
16 Delaware 15,778
17 Arkansas 15,583
18 Maryland 15,481
19 Iowa 15,073
20 Illinois 15,030
21 Nebraska 14,382
22 Connecticut 14,092
23 California 13,692
24 Utah 13,422
25 Idaho 13,155
26 North Carolina 12,541
27 Virginia 11,231
28 Indiana 10,804
29 Wisconsin 10,672
30 South Dakota 10,482
31 Oklahoma 10,461
32 Minnesota 10,405
33 New Mexico 10,383
34 Kansas 10,350
35 Michigan 9,494
36 Pennsylvania 9,474
37 North Dakota 9,423
38 Missouri 9,310
39 Colorado 8,618
40 Ohio 8,338
41 Washington 8,280
42 Kentucky 7,707
43 Puerto Rico 6,241
44 Alaska 5,769
45 Wyoming 5,110
46 New Hampshire 4,958
47 Oregon 4,801
48 Montana 4,323
49 West Virginia 4,060
50 Maine 2,973
51 Vermont 2,315
52 Hawaii 2,041

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 459
2 Mississippi 366
3 Idaho 311
4 Georgia 307
5 Texas 301
6 Florida 287
7 Tennessee 274
8 Arkansas 268
9 Alabama 267
10 Nevada 267
11 South Carolina 248
12 Oklahoma 236
13 Arizona 194
14 Missouri 189
15 Iowa 174
16 North Dakota 171
17 California 158
18 Wisconsin 152
19 Utah 151
20 North Carolina 150
21 Nebraska 149
22 Kentucky 144
23 Illinois 137
24 Indiana 130
25 Minnesota 122
26 Puerto Rico 119
27 Montana 116
28 Rhode Island 114
29 Hawaii 109
30 Kansas 109
31 Virginia 107
32 Delaware 106
33 Maryland 104
34 New Mexico 102
35 Ohio 100
36 District of Columbia 96
37 South Dakota 95
38 Washington 89
39 Colorado 87
40 Michigan 77
41 Alaska 72
42 Oregon 67
43 Wyoming 63
44 Pennsylvania 61
45 Massachusetts 58
46 West Virginia 56
47 New Jersey 39
48 New York 35
49 New Hampshire 20
50 Connecticut 17
51 Vermont 9
52 Maine 6

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,784
2 New York 1,661
3 Massachusetts 1,260
4 Connecticut 1,244
5 Rhode Island 957
6 Louisiana 891
7 District of Columbia 831
8 Michigan 651
9 Illinois 615
10 Mississippi 613
11 Delaware 602
12 Maryland 587
13 Pennsylvania 573
14 Arizona 550
15 Indiana 447
16 South Carolina 377
17 Georgia 371
18 Florida 360
19 Alabama 349
20 Colorado 322
21 New Mexico 319
22 Ohio 309
23 New Hampshire 308
24 Minnesota 297
25 Nevada 292
26 Iowa 289
27 Texas 289
28 Virginia 269
29 California 253
30 Washington 225
31 Missouri 219
32 North Carolina 202
33 Nebraska 179
34 Kentucky 174
35 Tennessee 171
36 Arkansas 170
37 Wisconsin 169
38 South Dakota 159
39 Oklahoma 149
40 North Dakota 148
41 Kansas 129
42 Idaho 127
43 Utah 103
44 Maine 92
45 Vermont 92
46 Oregon 81
47 Puerto Rico 80
48 West Virginia 69
49 Montana 61
50 Wyoming 46
51 Alaska 31
52 Hawaii 19

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Mississippi 12
2 Arizona 10
3 Florida 9
4 South Carolina 9
5 Louisiana 8
6 Texas 8
7 Alabama 5
8 Georgia 5
9 Nevada 5
10 Arkansas 4
11 California 4
12 Idaho 4
13 Tennessee 4
14 North Carolina 3
15 Oklahoma 3
16 Virginia 3
17 Iowa 2
18 Massachusetts 2
19 Nebraska 2
20 New Mexico 2
21 Ohio 2
22 Puerto Rico 2
23 South Dakota 2
24 Illinois 1
25 Indiana 1
26 Kansas 1
27 Kentucky 1
28 Maryland 1
29 Michigan 1
30 Minnesota 1
31 Missouri 1
32 North Dakota 1
33 Pennsylvania 1
34 Rhode Island 1
35 Utah 1
36 Washington 1
37 West Virginia 1
38 Wisconsin 1
39 Alaska 0
40 Colorado 0
41 Connecticut 0
42 Delaware 0
43 District of Columbia 0
44 Hawaii 0
45 Maine 0
46 Montana 0
47 New Hampshire 0
48 New Jersey 0
49 Oregon 0
50 Vermont 0
51 Wyoming 0
52 New York -1

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 139,844 1 99
Lake Tennessee 109,036 2 99
Lee Arkansas 100,485 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 95,626 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 91,907 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 32,050 131 95
Richland South Carolina 20,358 380 87
Orange California 12,190 887 71
York South Carolina 12,108 891 71
Pierce Washington 6,617 1629 48

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,020 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,836 2 99
Galax city Virginia 3,781 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,517 4 99
Neshoba Mississippi 3,125 5 99
Richland South Carolina 356 669 78
Davidson Tennessee 304 782 75
Orange California 219 1007 67
Pierce Washington 159 1256 60
York South Carolina 103 1546 50

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons